Publication
Sentiment Shifts and a New Approach to Strategic Narratives Analysis: Russian Rhetoric on Ukraine
In this article, Graig Klein, Juris Pupcenoks and Scott Fisher develop an innovative analytical approach that integrates sentiment analysis into the study of strategic narratives and apply this method to the study of Russian narratives toward Ukraine.
- Author
- Graig Klein, Juris Pupcenoks and Scott Fisher
- Date
- 29 February 2024
- Links
- Read the full article here
This paper assesses Russian rhetoric towards Ukraine from 2004 to 2019 by qualitatively and quantitatively analysing nearly 3,000 statements by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During this time, Russian identity narratives changed from projecting an identity of a good neighbour and hegemon to an enemy of the Ukrainian regime, while portrayals of Ukraine evolved from that of a strategic partner to a violator of international law and aggressor. Changes in sentiment either follow policy changes, pinpoint important kinetic developments, or indicate political openings.
A common tool in these interactions is diplomatic communication, in which countries strive to frame issues, their objectives, and the rationale for their actions. In this process, states create strategic narratives to persuade each other and both domestic and international publics. Successful strategic narratives can become binding, both shaping and constraining countries’ actions.
The article illustrates that strategic narratives may remain largely the same, but sentiment can change. The authors find that the commencement of diplomatic negotiations and a change of leadership can lead to brief shifts in sentiment. Thus, a spike in positive sentiment may signal a political opening to (re)consider a policy change. Overall, Russian sentiment remained positive during the Euromaidan in its references to Ukraine, despite the fact that the Russian narrative became more confrontational.