‘War with Russia more likely now Trump has spurned Europe’
image: Ukrinform/Shutterstock
Europe’s security suddenly looks uncertain now President Trump has started negotiations with Russia. What does this mean for the Netherlands? What do we need to do? We put these pressing questions to Professor of War Studies Frans Osinga.
What are the effects of Trump’s approach, such as beginning negotiations about Ukraine with Putin alone?
‘The ruthless speed with which Trump is going about this is extremely concerning. It’s an act of betrayal for America to tell Ukraine: make concessions to Russia and we will give you more security guarantees. Trump accused Ukraine of starting the war, which is bizarre to say the least. He is now undermining the international organisations that ensure our security and prosperity. In Munich, US Vice-President Vance said: we no longer share values with European countries. Then he spoke to the AfD, the German neofascist party. Trump and Vance are spurning the Europeans and this has caused a deep rift in the alliance. French President Macron and British Prime Minister Starmer are meeting Trump soon and will hopefully be able to build bridges.’
‘The US is undermining NATO’s power base’
What do these developments mean for Europe?
‘Europe is now on its own when it comes to deterring aggression. The US wants to cut its own defence budget by 40 per cent in the coming years and do business with Putin. This will undermine NATO’s power base. With Trump wanting to withdraw units from Poland and the Baltic States, the European countries will have to compensate. This means ramping up spending on ammunition, artillery, anti-aircraft systems and fighter planes for if Russia becomes “adventuristic” towards the Baltic States that belong to NATO. Russia may soon stage intimidating drills along their borders and a kilometre across them – purely to test how strong NATO cohesion is, how the US responds and therefore how credible Article 5 is.’
Symposium: Three years of war in Ukraine
In the ‘Three years of war in Ukraine’ symposium on 24 February, researchers, defence specialists, politicians and diplomats will reflect on the war and geopolitical relations. You can no longer sign up to attend and the event will not be streamed live because of safety measures.
In a much-read interview a few years ago (see link below) you said there was a real chance of war closer to home. How do you see that now?
Interview: The Netherlands should also consider the possibility of direct confrontation with Russia
‘Trump’s approach has made it even more likely and the comparison with 1938 has already been made. The Netherlands has committed to defend NATO’s borders, so we will have to supply military assistance if a member state is attacked. Tensions are already simmering amid Russian acts of sabotage such as cable cutting, cyber attacks and an attack on the boss of Rheinmetall arms manufacturer – which luckily was foiled. Germany’s role remains to be seen if the pro-Russian AfD comes to power there. The likelihood of Russian provocations will only increase.’
What should Europe – and therefore the Netherlands – do without delay?
‘Europe urgently needs to strengthen its military capabilities. NATO Secretary General Rutte recently said: spend at least 3.6% on defence. Russia will need time to recover from its enormous military losses, but within four to eight years it could also become more of a threat towards other East-European countries.’
Should the Netherlands also send troops to Ukraine to protect a future ceasefire?
‘It hasn’t yet been asked to but chances are that President Zelensky will only want a ceasefire if there is a peacekeeping force. You will need at least 100,000 troops to protect the around 1500 kilometre frontline. Europe will never achieve that – a ground force of 300,000 troops as a reserve force behind the Ukrainian troops is more realistic. Alongside troops, you also need a lot of artillery and fighter planes. Our units are already on the ground in the Baltic States, so it is more likely that we will initially provide F-35s or a Patriot system.’
‘Tensions are simmering amid Russian acts of sabotage’
A year ago you were wary of reintroducing military service in the Netherlands. Have you changed your mind?
‘I still am wary, but it looks more likely to be necessary in the future because the situation is worsening. Countries like Poland, Germany and Sweden already have large armies with large reserve forces. The Netherlands also needs to expand its armed forces with at any rate more reservists and young people who can do a year of military service. This could become compulsory, depending on the international situation. For military service, our armed forces first need to create the infrastructure to accommodate many more young people, so barracks, weapons and a whole supporting organisation.’
Do we need to shift to a war economy?
‘No, Russia is the only one to have done so. They are spending 40 per cent of the government budget on the war in Ukraine and prioritising the arms industry. The Dutch government may focus on making metals and chips available to the arms industry and building up extra medicine supplies, for instance. The government is already developing scenarios for such resilience measures.’
Is the government doing enough to make citizens more resilient?
‘Politicians and civil servants have been warning for longer that these are uncertain times and citizens must be prepared for systems going down. This includes knowing what to do if the power goes out and having enough food, drink and cash at home. I would also say to young people: think about how you can stay in touch with friends if you can no longer access social media like Snapchat and TikTok. We have become addicted to electricity. We need to hammer this message home: think about how you will get through the first 72 hours after a power outage.
‘Major sectors such as aviation, shipping, private sectors and critical infrastructures should also consider what could happen. How would a cyber attack affect the Port of Rotterdam or a drone flying towards it? The National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security and the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) are talking with many sectors, so much going on behind the scenes. Carrying on with these preparations needs to be at the top of our lists.’