‘American politics gives Europeans a glimpse of what lies ahead’
It’s impossible to avoid, even in the Netherlands: the US will soon be going to the polls. Where does it come from, this fascination with US elections? And does all the media coverage mean we have a good idea of what is going on there? PhD candidate Bram Eenink, who teaches about the American elections, explains.
Bram Eenink’s PhD research is on what he calls ‘post-American literature’. ‘This is literature speculating about America’s demise. It sounds rather post-apocalyptic but I’m looking for a more optimistic take.’ At present he is teaching a course about the American elections for over-50s who are interested in the subject and looking for more historical context.
Geopolitical superpower
The international attention in the American elections is easy to explain, says Eenink. ‘America is still the superpower in our geopolitical system, although this position is dwindling and the US under increasing fire.’ Since 2016, the elections have garnered extra attention because of Donald Trump’s ‘distinctive style and rhetoric’.
‘Definitely more distinctive than, for example, Obama versus Mitt Romney in 2012. Then there was a lot of attention for Obama’s election as the first black president. But his opponents were not exactly populist agitators. And Trump clearly was.
Christian and conspiracy right
Developments in American politics often also give Europeans a glimpse of at what lies ahead. ‘Take the radical right in the Netherlands. You see movements that are strongly influenced by what is happening in the US. The Protestant-Christian right, mainly represented by the SGP, borrows from American evangelicals, the American Christian subculture.’
Former SGP leader Kees van der Staaij signed the Nashville Statement in 2017, for example, calling on people to reject homosexuality. ‘You also see how the content and framing of anti-abortion policy has been imported from America. The politicisation of abortion clearly developed in America and has crossed the Atlantic to the Netherlands.’
Eenink also sees how right-wing groups that subscribe to conspiracy theories (‘conspiracy right’) copy many aspects of American movements. ‘You already had sovereign citizens in the US 30 years ago, who try to evade the American government with a kind of legal hocus-pocus. Since the pandemic, people in the Netherlands have blindly adopted this and call themselves autonomen or soevereinen and try to use the same tricks.’
Prestige in the media circus
Trump and Harris are daily fare in newspapers, TV news and talk shows, often as an opening item or on the front page. ‘My gut feeling is that many Dutch journalists really enjoy being part of that media circus. There is a lot of prestige to American journalism and its politics is a fun game to follow, also because it is so terribly exciting at the moment.’
Eenink would like journalists to focus less on ‘the game’ and more on the effects of American foreign policy. ‘It’s often about what candidates have said and what crazy tricks they get up to. But in recent years the election results really have made a difference to US foreign policy. And to America we are the “foreign”.’
‘No such thing as the average voter’
What Dutch journalists should also stop trying to do, says Eenink, is look for the ‘average voter’. ‘In such a polarised country there is no longer any such thing as the average voter. Focusing on swing voters in the middle can seem advantageous at times to candidates. But activating your own supporters at least equally important. The success or failure of the Democrat campaign hinges on how many Kamala Harris voters stay at home. Muslim communities, for instance, who feel alienated by the Democrats because of their stance towards Israel.’
All that media coverage will have given the Dutch a good idea of how these elections work, won’t it? ‘Nearly all the America correspondents you see on TV are on Harris’s side. That’s not a bad thing because her view of the world corresponds most to that of most Dutch people. But we underestimate how powerless “unknown America” feels. Only 50 or 60 per cent of Americans will vote and a large proportion feel politically alienated. They have a feeling of “it doesn’t matter anyway”.’
What is at stake for the Netherlands?
Much is at stake for the Netherlands in November, particularly regarding support for Ukraine, says Eenink. ‘Trump said, “I will achieve peace on my first day”. That’s nonsense but I do think he may pursue rapprochement with Russia.’ Both Trump and Harris will seek confrontation with China, but Trump will be ‘much more extreme’ when it comes to excluding Chinese industry. A trade war between the US and China will definitely affect us.
The two candidates also differ on NATO support. Whereas Democrats are prepared to cover Europe’s costs, Trump, says Eenink, is led more by his business instinct: ‘Why should I pay for that?’ Under Trump the Netherlands will therefore have to up its NATO spending, which we will notice in our budget.
Who is going to win?
With Harris and Trump neck and neck in the polls, it is impossible to predict a clear winner. Who is Eenink putting his money on? ‘Six months ago, I felt Trump was going to win. Kamala’s candidacy has changed that. She is younger, fitter and does not make as many verbal slip-ups as Biden. My head says it will be a narrow win for Kamala but my gut feeling is that Trump will triumph. Whoever wins, it will be nail-biting until the to the end.’
Text: Tom Janssen
Photo: Unsplash